Friday, July 16, 2010

Sea level changes

The hysteria around melting ice is unfounded. The knowledgeable people making the hyped claims are accurate about the quantity of water that would be released. And if all other things are unchanged sea level would rise 200 feet. But, changes in one factor usually result in changes in other things. God designed the world to be in balance. And, that design works.

Let us assume that global warming is causing glaciers and polar ice to melt. The change is not just from ice to water. It is also change to water vapor. If the air temperature is melting ice, it is also converting sea water to water vapor. The alarmists do not consider the water vapor part of the global water balance.

When air temperature rises, more gas molecules are released to the atmosphere. Water vapor is the balancing factor. Air wants to maintain a certain percentage of moisture. We call this humidity. The natural balance is about 51% on a worldwide basis. So when temperature rises, the air can hold more moisture.

With 86% of the world's total ice in Antarctica a one degree increase in world temperature will have negligible impact, since the average temperature at the south pole in the two warmest months is -15 degrees Fahrenheit. So even if major melting of world ice did occur it would at worst be 10% of total available. Or, a 20' rise in sea level, "all things being equal."

Under worst case conditions a one degree increase in temperature will increase moisture content by 0.1%. This would result in a 22' drop in sea level. The net result a 2' decrease in sea level.

We are dealing with extremely large numbers: 1 billion cubic miles of atmosphere and 7.2 million cubic miles of worldwide ice. My guess is no change, based on God's balanced design.

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